FMCG Monitor July 2017
Slowdown in FMCG market
Key market highlights in July 2017 issues:
The average CPI during the first 7 months is now controlled under +4%, but there is uncertainty to keep it in the safe zone for the remaining months as food price index posts an increase in July (after falling in 6 months) and the oil price is projected to rise. The growth of retail consumer goods, FDI, import and export are main driving forces of the economic improvement in the latest quarter.
The increase of average paid price (~same with the CPI rate) is the driving force of the market growth. In short term, there is no change in volume consumption, and even a slight decline in Rural area due to the decrease of central Rural.
The sharp decline of Dairy and Packaged Foods in terms of consumption is driven by the north and central areas while the south performance is much better. Some Beverage categories slow down, some even decline but Beer is the key driver of the weak performance in Beverage sector. Meanwhile, Home Care is the only sector showing a good volume growth, consumers are stretching their consumption of Home Care products.
Despite of the downtrend in Dairy sector, dairy products meeting the increasing demand of convenience still outperform in both Urban 4 cities and Rural market. Beside the opportunity to develop consumer base, another direction worth considering for these categories to drive further growth is to create higher volume consumption.
Modern Trade still maintains its growth momentum in Urban, posting a rise of 10%, contributed by the rapid expansion of Ministores and Online channel coupled with the continued rebound of Hypermarkets and Supermarkets since late 2016. In Rural, shoppers keep moving toward upgraded shopping channels with strong growth of Medium-sized street shops and Specialty stores.
Spotlight of the Month - A shift to healthy and convenient offers
Products or categories “not good for health” and “not convenient” are seeing buyer departure, losing more and more shoppers to the better ones. Hence, innovation focusing on safe and natural ingredients or new formats ready for consumption should be prioritized to be back to growth.
Urban 4 cities include Ho Chi Minh, Ha Noi, Da Nang and Can Tho.
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